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Jackson Holds Slight Lead Over Collins in Maine Senate Race Poll

A Washington Post-Schar School poll shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins by four points ahead of the midterm elections.

6 publishers · 16 articles · first seen 6 Oct 2026 · updated 28d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Susan Collins
0%50%100%0%22 Sept, 07:00 UTCnowThe Hill: Jackson holds slight lead over Collins in Maine Senate race survey · 9 Oct, 19:58 UTCWashington Post: Poll: Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race · 9 Oct, 09:00 UTCThe Guardian US: US midterms: key takeaways from Senate debates in Michigan, Georgia and Maine · 9 Oct, 04:48 UTCThe Hill: Second Maine Senate debate takes testy turn: 3 takeaways · 9 Oct, 02:17 UTCJust In News: Fiery Georgia Senate debate gets personal: 4 takeaways · 9 Oct, 01:37 UTCWashington Post: Obama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race · 8 Oct, 11:00 UTCThe Hill: Jackson, Collins tangle on Canada tariffs: 'We can't eat road salt' · 7 Oct, 20:36 UTCThe Hill News: Live updates: Candidates tangle in midterm debates; Trump heads back to Texas · 7 Oct, 13:03 UTCWashington Post: Susan Collins faces her biggest test yet · 7 Oct, 09:37 UTCCBS News Politics: In Maine Senate debate, Collins and Jackson both criticize Trump — but spar over how · 7 Oct, 04:03 UTCThe Guardian US: ‘Not exactly his favorite senator’: Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate · 7 Oct, 01:43 UTCThe Hill News: Collins, Jackson clash in first Maine Senate debate: 3 takeaways · 7 Oct, 01:34 UTCWashington Post: Takeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy Jackson · 7 Oct, 01:25 UTCWashington Post: Susan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump · 6 Oct, 16:12 UTCInside Climate News: Unpacking the Environmental Issues in Susan Collins’ Tough Race in Maine · 10 Oct, 08:50 UTCNational Review: The Civic Stakes of the Maine Senate Race · 6 Oct, 10:30 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
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The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 16 articles since 6 Oct 2026. National Review published first, on 6 October at 10:30 UTC; Washington Post followed 5h 42m later. The most recent article, from Inside Climate News, appeared on 10 October at 08:50 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), National Review, Inside Climate News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Susan Collins — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican takes office as a U.S. Senator from Maine for the term starting in 2027. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
  • Collins, 3+ pts — resolved “No” on 5 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It is No if the winner loses by less than that margin or if the opponent wins. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the election deadline, but only the final certified results of the 2026 election determine the resolution.
  • Republican party — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Republican party wins control of the Maine State Senate in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they do not win control. Readers often mistake this for a single-seat race or confuse the winner with the incumbent mentioned in the linked story.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Susan Collins at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. National ReviewThe Civic Stakes of the Maine Senate Race45%
  2. Washington PostSusan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump45%
  3. Washington PostTakeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy Jackson45%
  4. The Hill NewsCollins, Jackson clash in first Maine Senate debate: 3 takeaways45%
  5. The Guardian US‘Not exactly his favorite senator’: Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate45%
  6. CBS News PoliticsIn Maine Senate debate, Collins and Jackson both criticize Trump — but spar over how45%
  7. Washington PostSusan Collins faces her biggest test yet42%▼3 points since the previous source
  8. The Hill NewsLive updates: Candidates tangle in midterm debates; Trump heads back to Texas43%▲1 points since the previous source
  9. The HillJackson, Collins tangle on Canada tariffs: 'We can't eat road salt'47%▲4 points since the previous source
  10. Washington PostObama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race44%▼3 points since the previous source
  11. Show 6 later sources
    1. Just In NewsFiery Georgia Senate debate gets personal: 4 takeaways44%▼1 points since the previous source
    2. The HillSecond Maine Senate debate takes testy turn: 3 takeaways44%
    3. The Guardian USUS midterms: key takeaways from Senate debates in Michigan, Georgia and Maine44%▲1 points since the previous source
    4. Washington PostPoll: Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race44%
    5. The HillJackson holds slight lead over Collins in Maine Senate race survey43%▼1 points since the previous source
    6. Inside Climate NewsUnpacking the Environmental Issues in Susan Collins’ Tough Race in Maine43%
  12. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Jackson holds slight lead over Collins in Maine Senate race survey The Hill ·
  2. Poll: Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race Washington Post ·
  3. US midterms: key takeaways from Senate debates in Michigan, Georgia and Maine The Guardian US ·
  4. Second Maine Senate debate takes testy turn: 3 takeaways The Hill ·
  5. Fiery Georgia Senate debate gets personal: 4 takeaways Just In News ·
  6. Obama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race Washington Post ·
Show 10 more sources
  1. Jackson, Collins tangle on Canada tariffs: 'We can't eat road salt' The Hill ·
  2. Live updates: Candidates tangle in midterm debates; Trump heads back to Texas The Hill News ·
  3. Susan Collins faces her biggest test yet Washington Post ·
  4. In Maine Senate debate, Collins and Jackson both criticize Trump — but spar over how CBS News Politics ·
  5. ‘Not exactly his favorite senator’: Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate The Guardian US ·
  6. Collins, Jackson clash in first Maine Senate debate: 3 takeaways The Hill News ·
  7. Takeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy Jackson Washington Post ·
  8. Susan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump Washington Post ·
  9. Unpacking the Environmental Issues in Susan Collins’ Tough Race in Maine Inside Climate News
  10. The Civic Stakes of the Maine Senate Race National Review

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