Serbian Leader Vucic Launches Campaign for Prime Minister Post
Former President Aleksandar Vucic seeks to extend his hold on power through a parliamentary vote.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 34% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 80% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 05:57 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 78% |
| 25 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 72% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 73% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 72% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 65% |
| 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 60% |
| 23 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 23:27 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 67% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 45% |
| 17 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 70% |
| 16 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 71% |
| 14 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 72% |
| 14 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 73% |
| 12 Oct, 17:05 UTC | 78% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 77% |
| 12 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 12:44 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 77% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 66% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 4 October at 00:26 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Aleksandar Vučić — the market puts it at 8%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Aleksandar Vučić becomes Prime Minister of Serbia after the next general election and meets all constitutional requirements before December 31, 2028. It resolves to No if he does not assume that specific role within the stated timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the election period rather than the final date for meeting constitutional requirements.
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, and to "No" otherwise. The outcome depends on the number of seats won by the electoral list as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of party alliances or post-election organization.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Aleksandar Vučić 8% −61
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? No 12d ago
The market favoured Yes at 74% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Aleksandar Vucic
- Serbia