Scientists probe Earth's water origins and Mars' ancient climate

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 30 Sept 2026. Nature published first, on 30 September at 00:00 UTC; Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories followed 13h 00m later. The most recent article, from Spotlight news only, appeared on 1 October at 22:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Nature (major outlet), Spotlight news only, BBC Science.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before 2050 — the market puts it at 28%, closing 1 Jan 2050. The market resolves to Yes if ten or more humans live self-sufficiently on Mars for a full Earth year before January 1, 2050. It resolves to No if this specific condition is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for temporary visits or assume partial infrastructure counts as self-sufficiency.
• Before 2030 — the market puts it at 10%, closing 1 Jan 2030. The outcome is Yes if SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars before January 1, 2030. The outcome is No if this event does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked headline about an orbital test flight for the required Mars mission.
• Mars — the market puts it at 11%, with $99 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Aug 2099. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk travels to Mars before he dies or before August 1, 2099, whichever comes first. It resolves to No if that event does not happen within those limits. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than the earlier of his death or the specified year.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.