Rwanda Closes In on Deal to Host Africa's First F1 Grand Prix in 33 Years
Drivers including Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have expressed excitement as Rwanda intensifies efforts to host the event.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 0% |
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| 11 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 1% |
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| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 4% |
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| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 09:45 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 5% |
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| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 5% |
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| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 5% |
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| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 5% |
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| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 5% |
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| 26 Sept, 00:33 UTC | 5% |
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| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 18:00 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 3% |
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| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 3% |
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| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 3% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 8 Oct 2026. SkySports published first, on 8 October at 15:29 UTC; africa.businessinsider.com followed 7h 58m later. The most recent article, from africa.businessinsider.com, appeared on 8 October at 23:27 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: SkySports, africa.businessinsider.com.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? — resolved “No” on 2 Nov 2026. Yes resolves if George Russell finishes first in the 2026 F1 Drivers' standings, including any tiebreaks used by Formula 1. No resolves if he does not finish first or becomes mathematically eliminated from contention. The deadline is March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, and the source of truth is official Formula 1 information.
- Lewis Hamilton — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Lewis Hamilton wins the Formula 1 Drivers Championship. The outcome is No if he does not win the championship. Readers often mistake the final race date for the resolution deadline, but the market resolves based on the official championship standings.
- Rwanda — the market puts it at 18%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The 'Yes' outcome occurs if a confirmed human case of Ebola in Rwanda is officially reported between now and January 1, 2027. The 'No' outcome applies if no such case is reported within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked F1 story for the resolution criteria, but only Ebola cases count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 5d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Lewis Hamilton No 4d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Rwanda 18%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Rwanda
- Lewis Hamilton
- Max Verstappen
- George Russell