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England lose to Tonga as Australia beat New Zealand in Rugby League World Cup openers

Tonga defeat England 30-12 while Australia edge New Zealand 24-22, with Samoa also routing France in the tournament's opening round.

3 publishers · 15 articles · first seen 13 Oct 2026 · updated 21d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by BBC Sport, 43 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Australia or New Zealand
0%50%100%13%9 Oct, 08:50 UTCnowThe Guardian Sport: England stunned as Tonga tonking leaves Rugby League World Cup hopes hanging by a thread · 17 Oct, 11:35 UTCThe Guardian Sport: England’s World Cup test against Tonga will show where power really lies in rugby league · 16 Oct, 14:22 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Nation-swappers show Rugby League World Cup is up for grabs in fiery opener · 15 Oct, 12:57 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australia v New Zealand: men’s Rugby League World Cup – live · 15 Oct, 08:40 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Women’s Rugby League World Cup shapes as tighest yet as gap closes on hosts Australia | Megan Maurice · 14 Oct, 14:00 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australian success is not guaranteed but who can stop the Rugby League World Cup hosts? · 13 Oct, 14:00 UTCBBC Sport: Tonga stun England in World Cup opener · 17 Oct, 17:59 UTCSkySports: England thumped by Tonga in World Cup opener · 17 Oct, 11:12 UTCBBC Sport: England stunned by Tonga in World Cup opener · 17 Oct, 11:04 UTCBBC Sport: NRL gap a factor in France's heavy defeat by Samoa, says boss · 16 Oct, 12:28 UTCSkySports: Rugby League World Cup 2026: Samoa rout France in men's competition · 16 Oct, 11:15 UTCSkySports: Australia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in World Cup opener · 15 Oct, 11:50 UTCSkySports: Australia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in RLWC opener · 15 Oct, 11:34 UTCBBC Sport: The World Cup co-hosts for whom rugby league is a national obsession · 15 Oct, 05:37 UTCBBC Sport: Different ways to win - what Rugby League World Cup success looks like · 13 Oct, 13:16 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now13%
9 Oct, 08:50 UTC13%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 15 articles since 13 Oct 2026. BBC Sport published first, on 13 October at 13:16 UTC; The Guardian Sport followed 44 min later. The most recent article, from BBC Sport, appeared on 17 October at 17:59 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), BBC Sport, SkySports.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Australia or New Zealand — the market puts it at 13%, closing 1 Jan 2034. The market resolves to Yes if either Australia or New Zealand is officially named as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup by a Source Agency. It resolves to No if neither country receives that announcement. Readers often mistake the linked rugby match result for the resolution criteria, but only the FIFA World Cup hosting decision matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Australia or New Zealand at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. BBC SportDifferent ways to win - what Rugby League World Cup success looks like13%
  2. The Guardian SportAustralian success is not guaranteed but who can stop the Rugby League World Cup hosts?13%
  3. The Guardian SportWomen’s Rugby League World Cup shapes as tighest yet as gap closes on hosts Australia | Megan Maurice13%
  4. BBC SportThe World Cup co-hosts for whom rugby league is a national obsession13%
  5. The Guardian SportAustralia v New Zealand: men’s Rugby League World Cup – live13%
  6. SkySportsAustralia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in RLWC opener13%
  7. SkySportsAustralia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in World Cup opener13%
  8. The Guardian SportNation-swappers show Rugby League World Cup is up for grabs in fiery opener13%
  9. SkySportsRugby League World Cup 2026: Samoa rout France in men's competition13%
  10. BBC SportNRL gap a factor in France's heavy defeat by Samoa, says boss13%
  11. Show 5 later sources
    1. The Guardian SportEngland’s World Cup test against Tonga will show where power really lies in rugby league13%
    2. BBC SportEngland stunned by Tonga in World Cup opener13%
    3. SkySportsEngland thumped by Tonga in World Cup opener13%
    4. The Guardian SportEngland stunned as Tonga tonking leaves Rugby League World Cup hopes hanging by a thread13%
    5. BBC SportTonga stun England in World Cup opener13%
  12. Current odds13%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. England stunned as Tonga tonking leaves Rugby League World Cup hopes hanging by a thread The Guardian Sport ·
  2. England’s World Cup test against Tonga will show where power really lies in rugby league The Guardian Sport ·
  3. Nation-swappers show Rugby League World Cup is up for grabs in fiery opener The Guardian Sport ·
  4. Australia v New Zealand: men’s Rugby League World Cup – live The Guardian Sport ·
  5. Women’s Rugby League World Cup shapes as tighest yet as gap closes on hosts Australia | Megan Maurice The Guardian Sport ·
  6. Australian success is not guaranteed but who can stop the Rugby League World Cup hosts? The Guardian Sport ·
Show 9 more sources
  1. Tonga stun England in World Cup opener BBC Sport
  2. England thumped by Tonga in World Cup opener SkySports
  3. England stunned by Tonga in World Cup opener BBC Sport
  4. NRL gap a factor in France's heavy defeat by Samoa, says boss BBC Sport
  5. Rugby League World Cup 2026: Samoa rout France in men's competition SkySports
  6. Australia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in World Cup opener SkySports
  7. Australia pull off stunning win over New Zealand in RLWC opener SkySports
  8. The World Cup co-hosts for whom rugby league is a national obsession BBC Sport
  9. Different ways to win - what Rugby League World Cup success looks like BBC Sport

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Australia or New Zealand 13% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2034

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • England
  • Tonga
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • Samoa
  • France
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