RFK Jr's Changes Leave US Vaccine Recommendations in Limbo
Robert F Kennedy Jr reshapes the Advisory Committee on Immunization, halting new vaccine recommendations and disrupting access.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 19:03 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Nov, 13:45 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 13:07 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 02:17 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 14% |
| 16 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 11% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 16% |
| 14 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 19% |
| 8 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 18:17 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 26 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 26 October at 11:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. becomes the first member of Donald Trump's Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. This includes quitting, being fired, or being impeached. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to any event before May 22, 2026, rather than only those occurring after.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — the market puts it at 19%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. departs his role as HHS Secretary before 2027. The outcome is No if he remains in that position through the end of 2026. Readers often mistake the linked news story about vaccine recommendations for the actual trigger, but only his official departure from office counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Robert F. Kennedy Jr. No 12h ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 19% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Robert F Kennedy Jr
- US Department of Health and Human Services
- Advisory Committee on Immunization