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US Social Security Benefits to Rise 3.6% in 2027

The Social Security Administration announced a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, boosting average monthly payments by $75 for nearly 72 million recipients.

12 publishers · 21 articles · first seen 11 Oct 2026 · updated 23d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Above 1.5%
0%50%100%83%13 Oct, 12:49 UTCnowNPR World: Social Security benefits to get a boost. And, Hasan Piker defends his rhetoric · 15 Oct, 11:31 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: US Social Security benefits to rise by 3.6 percent in 2027 · 14 Oct, 16:10 UTCThe Guardian: Trump administration promises social security recipients 3.6% increase in 2027 · 14 Oct, 16:08 UTCThe Hill: The 2027 Social Security COLA is here: When will benefits increase? · 14 Oct, 14:59 UTCThe Hill: Social Security benefits increasing by 3.6 percent in 2027 · 14 Oct, 14:32 UTCAxios: Social Security recipients will see rise in monthly payments next year · 14 Oct, 14:06 UTCThe New York Times: Social Security COLA for 2027 Will Be 3.6% · 14 Oct, 13:38 UTCMarketWatch: The COLA wars are coming for Social Security · 15 Oct, 17:07 UTCFortune: As Social Security races toward insolvency, retirees are getting their biggest COLA boost in 4 years · 15 Oct, 07:00 UTCInc.: 72 Million Americans Will See Larger Social Security Checks Next Year. Here’s Your 2027 Raise · 14 Oct, 21:20 UTCQuartz: Social Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 2027, averaging $75 more a month for retirees · 14 Oct, 19:33 UTCMarketWatch: Did this year’s COLA beat inflation? Here’s how spending by American seniors stacks up so far in 2026. · 14 Oct, 18:53 UTCFortune: ‘A pittance’: Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% in 2027, about $75 a month for the average retiree, but some say it’s not enough · 14 Oct, 16:58 UTCRoll Call: Social Security benefits set for a boost next year · 14 Oct, 16:15 UTCQuartz: Social Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 2027 · 14 Oct, 13:51 UTCAll Content from Business Insider: Social Security recipients will get a 3.6% cost-of-living increase in 2027 · 14 Oct, 13:36 UTCQuartz: Where retirees pay the least tax on Social Security in 2027 · 14 Oct, 13:32 UTCMarketWatch: Social Security’s COLA will be 3.6% in 2027 as inflation persists · 14 Oct, 13:27 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 3 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now83%
13 Oct, 12:49 UTC83%

The story so far

12 publishers have covered this in 21 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Fortune published first, on 11 October at 09:00 UTC; The New York Times followed 29h 55m later. The most recent article, from MarketWatch, appeared on 15 October at 17:07 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), Fortune, MarketWatch, Quartz, All Content from Business Insider, Roll Call, Inc..

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Above 1.5% — the market puts it at 83%, closing 13 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Social Security Administration's initial announcement of the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment exceeds 1.5%. It resolves to No if that specific adjustment is 1.5% or lower. Readers often mistake the final enacted law for the resolution source, but only the SSA's initial announcement counts.
  • Before Jan 1, 2033 — the market puts it at 20%, closing 1 Jan 2033. The market resolves to Yes if the OASI Trust Fund runs out of money so that full scheduled Social Security benefits cannot be paid under current law before January 1, 2033. It resolves to No if this depletion does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria, but only the actual status of the OASI Trust Fund matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 1.5% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Fortune‘If we wait, will it even be there?’ What I’m hearing from retirees about Social Security—
  2. The New York TimesHow American Retirees at Different Incomes Rely on Social Security—
  3. MarketWatchHere’s how much extra money could be in your monthly Social Security check next year—
  4. MarketWatchSocial Security’s COLA will be 3.6% in 2027 as inflation persists83%
  5. QuartzWhere retirees pay the least tax on Social Security in 202783%
  6. All Content from Business InsiderSocial Security recipients will get a 3.6% cost-of-living increase in 202783%
  7. The New York TimesSocial Security COLA for 2027 Will Be 3.6%83%
  8. QuartzSocial Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 202783%
  9. AxiosSocial Security recipients will see rise in monthly payments next year83%
  10. The HillSocial Security benefits increasing by 3.6 percent in 202783%
  11. Show 11 later sources
    1. The HillThe 2027 Social Security COLA is here: When will benefits increase?83%
    2. The GuardianTrump administration promises social security recipients 3.6% increase in 202783%
    3. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS Social Security benefits to rise by 3.6 percent in 202783%
    4. Roll CallSocial Security benefits set for a boost next year83%
    5. Fortune‘A pittance’: Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% in 2027, about $75 a month for the average retiree, but some say it’s not enough83%
    6. MarketWatchDid this year’s COLA beat inflation? Here’s how spending by American seniors stacks up so far in 2026.83%
    7. QuartzSocial Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 2027, averaging $75 more a month for retirees83%
    8. Inc.72 Million Americans Will See Larger Social Security Checks Next Year. Here’s Your 2027 Raise83%
    9. FortuneAs Social Security races toward insolvency, retirees are getting their biggest COLA boost in 4 years83%
    10. NPR WorldSocial Security benefits to get a boost. And, Hasan Piker defends his rhetoric83%
    11. MarketWatchThe COLA wars are coming for Social Security83%
  12. Current odds83%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Social Security benefits to get a boost. And, Hasan Piker defends his rhetoric NPR World ·
  2. US Social Security benefits to rise by 3.6 percent in 2027 Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  3. Trump administration promises social security recipients 3.6% increase in 2027 The Guardian ·
  4. The 2027 Social Security COLA is here: When will benefits increase? The Hill ·
  5. Social Security benefits increasing by 3.6 percent in 2027 The Hill ·
  6. Social Security recipients will see rise in monthly payments next year Axios ·
Show 15 more sources
  1. Social Security COLA for 2027 Will Be 3.6% The New York Times ·
  2. How American Retirees at Different Incomes Rely on Social Security The New York Times ·
  3. The COLA wars are coming for Social Security MarketWatch
  4. As Social Security races toward insolvency, retirees are getting their biggest COLA boost in 4 years Fortune
  5. 72 Million Americans Will See Larger Social Security Checks Next Year. Here’s Your 2027 Raise Inc.
  6. Social Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 2027, averaging $75 more a month for retirees Quartz
  7. Did this year’s COLA beat inflation? Here’s how spending by American seniors stacks up so far in 2026. MarketWatch
  8. ‘A pittance’: Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% in 2027, about $75 a month for the average retiree, but some say it’s not enough Fortune
  9. Social Security benefits set for a boost next year Roll Call
  10. Social Security is raising benefits 3.6% in 2027 Quartz
  11. Social Security recipients will get a 3.6% cost-of-living increase in 2027 All Content from Business Insider
  12. Where retirees pay the least tax on Social Security in 2027 Quartz
  13. Social Security’s COLA will be 3.6% in 2027 as inflation persists MarketWatch
  14. Here’s how much extra money could be in your monthly Social Security check next year MarketWatch
  15. ‘If we wait, will it even be there?’ What I’m hearing from retirees about Social Security Fortune

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Above 1.5% 83% $0 24hends 13 Oct 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2033 20% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2033

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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