Controversial US-backed Hepatitis B Vaccine Trial in Guinea-Bissau Canceled
The CDC-funded study led by Danish researchers is halted after global backlash and police raids seized vaccine doses.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by The Guardian, 2h 26m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 4% |
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 20 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 20 October at 19:18 UTC; Ars Technica followed 2h 27m later. The most recent article, from Ars Technica, appeared on 23 October at 16:58 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), Ars Technica (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians, Rolling Stone.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Hepatitis B — the market puts it at 4%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the CDC completely stops recommending the Hepatitis B vaccine before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake public outrage or study controversies for an official change in CDC guidelines.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Hepatitis B at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The GuardianRFK Jr’s ‘deities of vaccine research’ raided by police in Guinea-Bissau4%
- Ars TechnicaCops raid office of RFK Jr. allies planning “unethical” vaccine trial on babies4%
- MedPageToday.com - medical news for physiciansHep B Vax Doses Seized; RFK Jr.'s Brazil Photos; MAHA Advisor's COI Waiver4%
- The GuardianControversial US-backed vaccine trial in African newborns halted4%
- Rolling StoneA Controversial Hepatitis B Vaccine Study Championed by RFK Jr. Is Axed After Widespread Backlash4%
- Ars Technica"Unethical" vaccine trial on babies backed by RFK Jr. is formally canceled4%
- The HillHouse Democrats demand answers from CDC on African hepatitis B study4%
- Ars TechnicaRFK Jr.’s vaccine injury clinic could damage NIH hospital, board warns4%
- Current odds4%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- RFK Jr.’s vaccine injury clinic could damage NIH hospital, board warns Ars Technica ·
- House Democrats demand answers from CDC on African hepatitis B study The Hill ·
- "Unethical" vaccine trial on babies backed by RFK Jr. is formally canceled Ars Technica ·
- Controversial US-backed vaccine trial in African newborns halted The Guardian ·
- Cops raid office of RFK Jr. allies planning “unethical” vaccine trial on babies Ars Technica ·
- RFK Jr’s ‘deities of vaccine research’ raided by police in Guinea-Bissau The Guardian ·
- A Controversial Hepatitis B Vaccine Study Championed by RFK Jr. Is Axed After Widespread Backlash Rolling Stone
- Hep B Vax Doses Seized; RFK Jr.'s Brazil Photos; MAHA Advisor's COI Waiver MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Hepatitis B 4%
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In this story
- CDC
- Guinea-Bissau
- Robert F Kennedy Jr.
- Frederik Schaltz-Buchholzer