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OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Coordinated Model-Distillation Campaign

The company says it identified and mitigated a campaign by individuals linked to the Chinese developer to extract protected reasoning from its models.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 30 Sept 2026 · updated 37d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · OpenAI
0%50%100%16%22 Sept, 11:56 UTCnowdecrypt.co: OpenAI Says People Linked to China's Moonshot Tried to Copy Its AI's Hidden Reasoning · 1 Oct, 19:46 UTCLatest from Tom's Hardware: OpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning · 1 Oct, 12:00 UTCtheinformation.com: OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign · 1 Oct, 08:37 UTCOpenAI: Disrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign · 30 Sept, 10:30 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now16%
3 Oct, 19:42 UTC16%
3 Oct, 17:49 UTC19%
3 Oct, 16:00 UTC20%
3 Oct, 14:54 UTC21%
3 Oct, 11:34 UTC20%
3 Oct, 05:03 UTC21%
2 Oct, 22:02 UTC22%
2 Oct, 21:55 UTC22%
2 Oct, 21:29 UTC18%
2 Oct, 17:45 UTC20%
2 Oct, 14:14 UTC22%
2 Oct, 12:44 UTC20%
2 Oct, 09:04 UTC18%
2 Oct, 05:05 UTC20%
2 Oct, 02:56 UTC16%
2 Oct, 00:10 UTC20%
1 Oct, 22:51 UTC20%
1 Oct, 22:19 UTC24%
1 Oct, 19:27 UTC23%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC20%
1 Oct, 13:30 UTC16%
1 Oct, 13:06 UTC20%
1 Oct, 12:58 UTC21%
1 Oct, 10:35 UTC16%
1 Oct, 06:01 UTC18%
1 Oct, 04:03 UTC21%
1 Oct, 00:51 UTC19%
1 Oct, 00:15 UTC20%
30 Sept, 23:47 UTC16%
30 Sept, 23:13 UTC15%
30 Sept, 20:24 UTC22%
29 Sept, 18:47 UTC21%
29 Sept, 12:03 UTC27%
29 Sept, 10:45 UTC26%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC25%
28 Sept, 07:37 UTC21%
28 Sept, 03:34 UTC27%
28 Sept, 00:07 UTC25%
27 Sept, 21:43 UTC20%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC25%
27 Sept, 20:07 UTC20%
27 Sept, 19:13 UTC21%
27 Sept, 18:58 UTC25%
27 Sept, 14:31 UTC24%
27 Sept, 04:11 UTC23%
26 Sept, 12:13 UTC24%
25 Sept, 17:52 UTC22%
25 Sept, 15:27 UTC25%
25 Sept, 12:18 UTC24%
25 Sept, 02:20 UTC21%
25 Sept, 00:34 UTC17%
24 Sept, 20:45 UTC22%
24 Sept, 19:10 UTC21%
24 Sept, 17:34 UTC18%
24 Sept, 14:36 UTC22%
24 Sept, 12:23 UTC20%
24 Sept, 05:28 UTC22%
24 Sept, 04:30 UTC25%
23 Sept, 22:48 UTC24%
23 Sept, 12:14 UTC32%
22 Sept, 11:56 UTC31%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 30 Sept 2026. OpenAI published first, on 30 September at 10:30 UTC; theinformation.com followed 22h 07m later. The most recent article, from decrypt.co, appeared on 1 October at 19:46 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: OpenAI, theinformation.com, Latest from Tom's Hardware, decrypt.co.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • OpenAI — the market puts it at 16%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI holds the top-ranked artificial intelligence model anywhere in the world before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if it does not achieve this ranking by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the specific start of 2027.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on OpenAI at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. OpenAIDisrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign21%
  2. theinformation.comOpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign18%▼3 points since the previous source
  3. Latest from Tom's HardwareOpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning16%▼2 points since the previous source
  4. decrypt.coOpenAI Says People Linked to China's Moonshot Tried to Copy Its AI's Hidden Reasoning23%▲7 points since the previous source
  5. Current odds16%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. OpenAI Says People Linked to China's Moonshot Tried to Copy Its AI's Hidden Reasoning decrypt.co
  2. OpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning Latest from Tom's Hardware
  3. OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign theinformation.com
  4. Disrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign OpenAI

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi OpenAI 16% −4 $1k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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