NC's Redrawn 1st District Becomes Most Expensive US House Race
Ad spending in the contest between Democratic Rep. Don Davis and GOP challenger Laurie Buckhout has reached $52.9 million.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 29 October at 14:58 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Buckhout, 5+ pts — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins North Carolina's 1st District race by a margin of at least five percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican Party wins by less than five points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the total vote count for the required margin, but only the difference between the winner and runner-up matters.
- Davis, 1+ pts — the market puts it at 95%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Carolina's 1st District by a margin of at least one percentage point. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than one percentage point or loses the race entirely.
- Republican party — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Republicans win control of the North Carolina State House in the 2026 election. It resolves to No if they do not. Readers often mistake this for a US House race, but it specifically concerns the state legislature.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Buckhout, 5+ pts No 10h ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Davis, 1+ pts 95%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Republican party No 11h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Don Davis
- Laurie Buckhout
- North Carolina