Nasa Targets 2028 Artemis III Moon Landing Amid SpaceX, Blue Origin Lander Competition

The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 23 Oct 2026. Scientific American published first, on 23 October at 20:20 UTC; The New York Times followed 3h 00m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 25 October at 08:43 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Scientific American, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Fortune, Times of India.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 0%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if an announcement confirms that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after the question was issued and by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline as January 1, 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
• Before 2030 — the market puts it at 62%, with $251 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. Yes resolves if Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship and before January 1, 2030. No resolves if that specific sequence of events does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for any lunar landing by Blue Origin, ignoring the strict condition that it must happen before SpaceX's uncrewed Starship landing.
• Before 2030 — the market puts it at 20%, with $69 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX successfully lands any object on Mars before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a launch date as the resolution condition, but only an actual landing counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.