Messi, Neymar Exit Argentina, Brazil as No. 10 Successors Emerge
Lionel Messi and Neymar are set to leave the Argentina and Brazil national teams respectively, prompting questions about who will wear their historic shirts.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 00:40 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 93% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 94% |
| 23 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 95% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 93% |
| 23 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Sept, 14:31 UTC | 97% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Sept 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 23 September at 15:08 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Santos — resolved “Yes” on 2 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Neymar joins Santos as his next club before October 2, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the polling data in the linked story for the actual election outcome.
- Lionel Messi — the market puts it at 11%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Lionel Messi tops Google's 2026 Global Athletes search list. The outcome is No if he does not reach that number one spot. Readers often mistake the specific category for the overall global ranking.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Santos Yes 36d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 33d ago
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Lionel Messi 11%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lionel Messi
- Neymar
- Argentina
- Brazil