Mamdani struggles to dismantle NYPD unit he pledged to end
The mayor faces significant challenges in fulfilling his campaign promise to abolish the controversial police division.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 84% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 78% |
| 29 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 83% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 79% |
| 24 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 73% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Sept 2026. Politico published first, on 29 September at 20:13 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Yes — the market puts it at 84%, with $34 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 6 Apr 2029. The outcome is Yes if Zohran Mamdani announces his intention to run for New York City mayor in 2029 before April 6, 2029. The outcome is No if he does not make such an announcement by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the election year rather than the specific cutoff date in early 2029.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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- Kalshi Yes 84%
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In this story
- Mamdani
- NYPD