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USC Upsets No. 2 Ohio State in Lincoln Riley's Biggest Win as Head Coach Hot: $179k traded on its market in 24 hours

The Trojans defeat the Buckeyes 30-18 behind Jayden Maiava's passing and rushing scores from King Miller and Waymond Jordan.

4 publishers · 46 articles · first seen 21 Oct 2026 · updated 35h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Lincoln Riley
0%50%100%50%31 Oct, 10:06 UTCnowwww.espn.com: USC upsets No. 2 Ohio State for biggest win of Riley's tenure · 1 Nov, 03:45 UTCSI Feed: USC Quarterback Jayden Maiava’s NFL Draft Stock Soars After Ohio State Upset · 5 Nov, 21:03 UTCCBS Sports Headlines: Big Ten Power Rankings, Week 10: Can Lincoln Riley lead USC on a late charge? · 4 Nov, 19:25 UTCSI Feed: USC's Jayden Maiava Shares Eye-Opening Reflection on Ohio State Upset · 4 Nov, 19:01 UTCCBS Sports Headlines: Lincoln Riley addresses heated postgame exchange with Ohio State AD Ross Bjork · 4 Nov, 15:21 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Delivers Honest Response to USC's College Football Playoff Ranking · 4 Nov, 13:58 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley’s Comments After Ohio State Upset Spark Mixed Reactions · 3 Nov, 22:00 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Identifies USC's Path Forward After Upsetting Ohio State · 3 Nov, 13:59 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Doesn't Hold Back on Mark Bowman, Trent Mosley After Ohio State Win · 2 Nov, 02:45 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Explains Biggest Difference for USC's Offense vs. Ohio State · 1 Nov, 23:00 UTCSI Feed: USC’s Performance Against Ohio State Indicates One Key Thing About the Trojans · 1 Nov, 20:31 UTCSI Feed: Week 9 Overreactions: Did Lincoln Riley Save His Job? Hoosiers Win in Overtime Again! · 1 Nov, 18:06 UTCSI Feed: Tempers Flare Postgame Between Lincoln Riley and Ohio State Staff Member · 1 Nov, 16:54 UTCSI Feed: Pat Forde: Lincoln Riley Notched His Biggest Win at USC, Then Things Turned Strange · 1 Nov, 11:00 UTCSI Feed: Jayden Maiava Backs Up Lincoln Riley After USC's Upset Win Over Ohio State · 1 Nov, 05:30 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message After USC Upsets Ohio State · 1 Nov, 04:51 UTCSI Feed: Lincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message About Job After USC Upsets Ohio State · 1 Nov, 04:51 UTCCBS Sports Headlines: Lincoln Riley flips script on hot-seat chatter as USC's upset over Ohio State puts Trojans back in CFP picture · 1 Nov, 03:18 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 28 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now50%
5 Nov, 03:23 UTC50%
3 Nov, 19:06 UTC20%
31 Oct, 16:15 UTC30%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC98%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC31%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 46 articles since 21 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 21 October at 13:03 UTC; feeds.bleacherreport.com followed 156h 01m later. The most recent article, from SI Feed, appeared on 5 November at 21:03 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: www.espn.com (major outlet), SI Feed, feeds.bleacherreport.com, CBS Sports Headlines.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Lincoln Riley — the market puts it at 50%, closing 1 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Lincoln Riley leaves his position as USC's head coach or announces he will leave before February 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a news report about potential interest for the actual announcement deadline.
  • Lincoln Riley — the market puts it at 1%, closing 29 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Lincoln Riley wins the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year award during the 2026-27 college football season. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific award in that timeframe. Readers often mistake the timing, assuming any coaching change or news story about his future counts toward resolution.
  • USC — the market puts it at 1%, with $179k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 23 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if USC wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific game. Readers often mistake the linked story about a potential buyout as the resolution condition, but only the championship outcome matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Lincoln Riley at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. SI FeedLincoln Riley Names USC Trojans’ Big Area of Defensive Improvement—
  2. SI FeedLincoln Riley Embracing One USC Defender's Injury Recovery—
  3. SI FeedOne Four-Star Recruit to Watch for USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley—
  4. SI FeedLincoln Riley Facing Most Critical Stretch in USC Trojans Tenure—
  5. SI FeedLincoln Riley Gets Honest About USC Trojans Letdown vs. Wisconsin—
  6. SI FeedLincoln Riley Has Run Out of Time at USC—
  7. SI FeedWhat Makes USC's Loss to Wisconsin Worse for Trojans Coach Lincoln Riley—
  8. SI FeedOne Referee Call That Added Insult to Injury for USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley—
  9. SI FeedUnfortunate Reality Hitting for USC When Comparing Trojans to UCLA Bruins—
  10. SI FeedOne USC Trojans Legend Shares Frustrations With Lincoln Riley, State of the Program—
  11. Show 36 later sources
    1. SI FeedUSC Trojans Legend Has a Growing Concern About Lincoln Riley—
    2. SI FeedUSC Bowl Projection Looms Large With Questions About Lincoln Riley's Future—
    3. SI FeedLincoln Riley Explains USC Trojans' Lack of Explosive Plays vs. Wisconsin—
    4. SI FeedUSC’s Biggest Concerns After Wisconsin Loss: What’s Real vs. What’s an Overreaction—
    5. SI FeedLincoln Riley Doesn't Hold Back on the Challenges Ohio State Buckeyes Present—
    6. SI FeedOhio State Coach Ryan Day Delivers Evaluation Of USC Trojans Talent—
    7. SI FeedUSC's Lincoln Riley Linked to Big 12 Job Before Coaching Carousel Picks Up—
    8. feeds.bleacherreport.comLincoln Riley Addresses USC Hot Seat Rumors, Calls Himself 'Right Person' for Job Before OSU Game—
    9. SI FeedLincoln Riley Clears the Air on Relationship With USC Athletic Director Jen Cohen—
    10. www.espn.comRiley says USC 'right place for me' and 'I'm the right person to be here'—
    11. SI FeedJayden Maiava Drops Honest Perspective on USC's Loss to Wisconsin—
    12. CBS Sports HeadlinesLincoln Riley shuts down USC exit speculation as pressure builds: 'I believe in this place'—
    13. SI FeedLincoln Riley Fires Back at Speculation of His USC Trojans' Exit—
    14. SI FeedUSC Offensive Lineman Elijah Paige Defends Lincoln Riley Amid Criticism—
    15. SI FeedLincoln Riley's Latest Affirmation to USC Sparks National Media Buzz—
    16. SI FeedUnfortunate Comparison for Lincoln Riley Between Oklahoma and USC Tenures—
    17. SI FeedLincoln Riley Compares Ohio State Star Jeremiah Smith to All-Time Great—
    18. SI FeedUSC Has One Major Leadership Question Under Lincoln Riley—
    19. CBS Sports HeadlinesLincoln Riley flips script on hot-seat chatter as USC's upset over Ohio State puts Trojans back in CFP picture30%
    20. www.espn.comUSC upsets No. 2 Ohio State for biggest win of Riley's tenure30%
    21. SI FeedLincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message After USC Upsets Ohio State30%
    22. SI FeedLincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message About Job After USC Upsets Ohio State30%
    23. SI FeedJayden Maiava Backs Up Lincoln Riley After USC's Upset Win Over Ohio State30%
    24. SI FeedPat Forde: Lincoln Riley Notched His Biggest Win at USC, Then Things Turned Strange30%
    25. SI FeedTempers Flare Postgame Between Lincoln Riley and Ohio State Staff Member30%
    26. SI FeedWeek 9 Overreactions: Did Lincoln Riley Save His Job? Hoosiers Win in Overtime Again!30%
    27. SI FeedUSC’s Performance Against Ohio State Indicates One Key Thing About the Trojans30%
    28. SI FeedLincoln Riley Explains Biggest Difference for USC's Offense vs. Ohio State30%
    29. SI FeedLincoln Riley Doesn't Hold Back on Mark Bowman, Trent Mosley After Ohio State Win30%
    30. SI FeedLincoln Riley Identifies USC's Path Forward After Upsetting Ohio State30%
    31. SI FeedLincoln Riley’s Comments After Ohio State Upset Spark Mixed Reactions20%▼10 points since the previous source
    32. SI FeedLincoln Riley Delivers Honest Response to USC's College Football Playoff Ranking20%
    33. CBS Sports HeadlinesLincoln Riley addresses heated postgame exchange with Ohio State AD Ross Bjork20%
    34. SI FeedUSC's Jayden Maiava Shares Eye-Opening Reflection on Ohio State Upset20%
    35. CBS Sports HeadlinesBig Ten Power Rankings, Week 10: Can Lincoln Riley lead USC on a late charge?20%
    36. SI FeedUSC Quarterback Jayden Maiava’s NFL Draft Stock Soars After Ohio State Upset50%▲30 points since the previous source
  12. Current odds50%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. USC upsets No. 2 Ohio State for biggest win of Riley's tenure www.espn.com ·
  2. Riley says USC 'right place for me' and 'I'm the right person to be here' www.espn.com ·
  3. USC Quarterback Jayden Maiava’s NFL Draft Stock Soars After Ohio State Upset SI Feed
  4. Big Ten Power Rankings, Week 10: Can Lincoln Riley lead USC on a late charge? CBS Sports Headlines
  5. USC's Jayden Maiava Shares Eye-Opening Reflection on Ohio State Upset SI Feed
  6. Lincoln Riley addresses heated postgame exchange with Ohio State AD Ross Bjork CBS Sports Headlines
Show 40 more sources
  1. Lincoln Riley Delivers Honest Response to USC's College Football Playoff Ranking SI Feed
  2. Lincoln Riley’s Comments After Ohio State Upset Spark Mixed Reactions SI Feed
  3. Lincoln Riley Identifies USC's Path Forward After Upsetting Ohio State SI Feed
  4. Lincoln Riley Doesn't Hold Back on Mark Bowman, Trent Mosley After Ohio State Win SI Feed
  5. Lincoln Riley Explains Biggest Difference for USC's Offense vs. Ohio State SI Feed
  6. USC’s Performance Against Ohio State Indicates One Key Thing About the Trojans SI Feed
  7. Week 9 Overreactions: Did Lincoln Riley Save His Job? Hoosiers Win in Overtime Again! SI Feed
  8. Tempers Flare Postgame Between Lincoln Riley and Ohio State Staff Member SI Feed
  9. Pat Forde: Lincoln Riley Notched His Biggest Win at USC, Then Things Turned Strange SI Feed
  10. Jayden Maiava Backs Up Lincoln Riley After USC's Upset Win Over Ohio State SI Feed
  11. Lincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message After USC Upsets Ohio State SI Feed
  12. Lincoln Riley Sends Fiery Message About Job After USC Upsets Ohio State SI Feed
  13. Lincoln Riley flips script on hot-seat chatter as USC's upset over Ohio State puts Trojans back in CFP picture CBS Sports Headlines
  14. USC Has One Major Leadership Question Under Lincoln Riley SI Feed
  15. Lincoln Riley Compares Ohio State Star Jeremiah Smith to All-Time Great SI Feed
  16. Unfortunate Comparison for Lincoln Riley Between Oklahoma and USC Tenures SI Feed
  17. Lincoln Riley's Latest Affirmation to USC Sparks National Media Buzz SI Feed
  18. USC Offensive Lineman Elijah Paige Defends Lincoln Riley Amid Criticism SI Feed
  19. Lincoln Riley Fires Back at Speculation of His USC Trojans' Exit SI Feed
  20. Lincoln Riley shuts down USC exit speculation as pressure builds: 'I believe in this place' CBS Sports Headlines
  21. Jayden Maiava Drops Honest Perspective on USC's Loss to Wisconsin SI Feed
  22. Lincoln Riley Clears the Air on Relationship With USC Athletic Director Jen Cohen SI Feed
  23. Lincoln Riley Addresses USC Hot Seat Rumors, Calls Himself 'Right Person' for Job Before OSU Game feeds.bleacherreport.com
  24. USC's Lincoln Riley Linked to Big 12 Job Before Coaching Carousel Picks Up SI Feed
  25. Ohio State Coach Ryan Day Delivers Evaluation Of USC Trojans Talent SI Feed
  26. Lincoln Riley Doesn't Hold Back on the Challenges Ohio State Buckeyes Present SI Feed
  27. USC’s Biggest Concerns After Wisconsin Loss: What’s Real vs. What’s an Overreaction SI Feed
  28. Lincoln Riley Explains USC Trojans' Lack of Explosive Plays vs. Wisconsin SI Feed
  29. USC Bowl Projection Looms Large With Questions About Lincoln Riley's Future SI Feed
  30. One USC Trojans Legend Shares Frustrations With Lincoln Riley, State of the Program SI Feed
  31. USC Trojans Legend Has a Growing Concern About Lincoln Riley SI Feed
  32. Unfortunate Reality Hitting for USC When Comparing Trojans to UCLA Bruins SI Feed
  33. One Referee Call That Added Insult to Injury for USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley SI Feed
  34. What Makes USC's Loss to Wisconsin Worse for Trojans Coach Lincoln Riley SI Feed
  35. Lincoln Riley Has Run Out of Time at USC SI Feed
  36. Lincoln Riley Gets Honest About USC Trojans Letdown vs. Wisconsin SI Feed
  37. Lincoln Riley Facing Most Critical Stretch in USC Trojans Tenure SI Feed
  38. One Four-Star Recruit to Watch for USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley SI Feed
  39. Lincoln Riley Embracing One USC Defender's Injury Recovery SI Feed
  40. Lincoln Riley Names USC Trojans’ Big Area of Defensive Improvement SI Feed

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Lincoln Riley 50% $0 24hends 1 Feb 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Lincoln Riley 1% $0 24hends 29 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi USC 1% $179k 24hends 23 Feb 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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