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Last Republican Who Voted To Impeach Trump Loses Re-election Bid

David Valadao becomes the final House GOP member who supported impeachment to leave Congress after losing his California seat.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 5 Nov 2026 · updated 2d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Donald Trump
0%50%100%13%4 Nov, 00:03 UTCnowThe Hill: None of the House Rs who voted to impeach Trump will be in Congress after this year · 5 Nov, 00:33 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now13%
6 Nov, 06:35 UTC13%
6 Nov, 01:02 UTC12%
5 Nov, 18:43 UTC13%
5 Nov, 06:33 UTC14%
5 Nov, 03:08 UTC18%
5 Nov, 02:17 UTC24%
5 Nov, 00:51 UTC22%
4 Nov, 00:03 UTC19%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 5 November at 00:33 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Donald Trump — the market puts it at 13%, with $109 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump becomes the first official named in this event to be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives between now and January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of his term rather than the fixed date of January 1, 2028.
  • Before his term ends — the market puts it at 24%, with $16k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the U.S. President is impeached by the House of Representatives and convicted by the Senate before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about firing aides for the actual impeachment process.
  • Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? — the market puts it at 67%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority vote before January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such action occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that a Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office is required for the Yes outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. None of the House Rs who voted to impeach Trump will be in Congress after this year The Hill ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Donald Trump 13% $109 24hends 1 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Before his term ends 24% −1 $16k 24hends 20 Jan 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? 67% −9 $5k 24hends 20 Jan 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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