Kathy Castor Retains Tampa Bay Seat in Florida Election
The Democratic incumbent defeats Republican challenger Mike Beltran to keep her House seat.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg.com, 2 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 25% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Castor, 8+ pts respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 4 November at 00:48 UTC; The Hill followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from Mother Jones, appeared on 4 November at 02:51 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Mother Jones.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Castor, 8+ pts — the market puts it at 1%, with $25 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins Florida's 14th District by a margin of 8 percentage points or more in the 2026 election. It resolves to No if the win is less than 8 percentage points or if the party loses. Readers often mistake the linked story about Kathy Castor for the resolution criteria, but only the final 2026 election results matter.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Castor, 8+ pts at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comDemocrat Castor Wins Florida House Race, NBC Projects25%
- The HillKathy Castor holds on to Tampa-area seat after redistricting25%
- Mother JonesRepublicans Gerrymandered These Florida Districts. Democrats Won Them Anyway.22%▼3 points since the previous source
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Castor, 8+ pts 1% −0
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Kathy Castor
- Mike Beltran