Kane, Mbappe and Messi headline Ballon d'Or shortlist as ceremony moves to London

France Football reveals the 30-man shortlist for the 2026 award, with Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi among the favourites.

4 publishers · 5 articles · first seen 8 Sept 2026 · updated 59d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

All 5 sources published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	100%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC	82%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC	74%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC	79%
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26 Oct, 17:45 UTC	73%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC	68%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC	65%
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26 Oct, 12:47 UTC	69%
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24 Oct, 13:52 UTC	66%
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20 Oct, 16:34 UTC	72%
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19 Oct, 03:23 UTC	66%
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7 Oct, 20:50 UTC	49%
7 Oct, 20:02 UTC	49%
7 Oct, 19:35 UTC	49%
7 Oct, 19:20 UTC	49%
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7 Oct, 16:55 UTC	48%
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7 Oct, 14:19 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 12:50 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 09:48 UTC	49%
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7 Oct, 00:35 UTC	48%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	48%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC	48%
6 Oct, 14:37 UTC	48%
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6 Oct, 11:13 UTC	48%
6 Oct, 10:25 UTC	48%
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5 Oct, 16:03 UTC	47%
5 Oct, 15:35 UTC	47%
5 Oct, 15:28 UTC	51%
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5 Oct, 13:39 UTC	50%
5 Oct, 13:12 UTC	48%
5 Oct, 12:58 UTC	48%
5 Oct, 12:03 UTC	47%
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4 Oct, 23:58 UTC	47%
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3 Oct, 22:49 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 22:23 UTC	45%
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3 Oct, 20:43 UTC	44%
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2 Oct, 23:39 UTC	44%
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2 Oct, 20:11 UTC	40%
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1 Oct, 23:25 UTC	35%
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1 Oct, 21:59 UTC	32%
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1 Oct, 18:28 UTC	33%
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1 Oct, 13:55 UTC	40%
1 Oct, 12:58 UTC	41%
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30 Sept, 23:47 UTC	43%
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29 Sept, 23:23 UTC	43%
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28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	43%
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28 Sept, 14:06 UTC	50%
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25 Sept, 22:02 UTC	58%
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25 Sept, 16:58 UTC	57%
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22 Sept, 20:42 UTC	57%
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20 Sept, 23:08 UTC	56%
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14 Sept, 15:42 UTC	60%
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13 Sept, 22:30 UTC	61%
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12 Sept, 22:32 UTC	62%
12 Sept, 22:26 UTC	62%
12 Sept, 18:39 UTC	62%
11 Sept, 18:39 UTC	62%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 8 Sept 2026. BBC Sport published first, on 8 September at 15:27 UTC; The Guardian Sport followed 44 min later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Sport, appeared on 9 September at 13:04 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), BBC Sport, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.

One prediction market prices this story:

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — resolved “Yes” on 27 Oct 2026. Yes resolves if Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or, and No resolves if he does not. The deadline for resolution is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the linked story about his contract extension as relevant to the award outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Resolved Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11d ago
The market favoured Yes at 70% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong

In this story

Harry Kane
Kylian Mbappé
Ousmane Dembélé
Lionel Messi
France Football
Jude Bellingham

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

<iframe src="https://newsmarkets.org/embed/story/kane-mbappe-and-messie-headline-ballon-d-or-shortlist-3021" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Kane, Mbappe and Messi headline Ballon d'Or shortlist as ceremony moves to London · NewsMarkets"></iframe>