House GOP Abandons NY Seat While Adding Five Candidates to MAGA Majority Program
Republicans withdraw funding from New York's 19th district while the NRCC expands its challenger program with five new candidates in Florida and North Carolina.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
All 3 sources published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Nov, 23:08 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Nov, 11:50 UTC | 52% |
| 2 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Nov, 03:49 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 20:43 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Nov, 16:07 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 49% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 49% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 50% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 48% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 21:00 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 00:07 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 10:21 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 42% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 41% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 40% |
| 18 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 40% |
| 17 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 40% |
| 14 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 39% |
| 14 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 40% |
| 13 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 01:30 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 10:41 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 10:19 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 01:53 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 10:17 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 02:04 UTC | 38% |
| 19 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 37% |
| 19 Sept, 21:05 UTC | 37% |
| 19 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 36% |
| 19 Sept, 13:16 UTC | 36% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 33% |
| 17 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 33% |
| 15 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 33% |
| 15 Sept, 18:11 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 30% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 8 Sept 2026. The Hill News published first, on 8 September at 17:39 UTC; Axios followed 3h 33m later. The most recent article, from Roll Call, appeared on 9 September at 02:48 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill News (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Roll Call.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome counts if Republicans hold 47 or fewer seats in the Senate after the November 3, 2026 election and any subsequent runoffs. The No outcome applies if they hold 48 or more seats at that time. Readers often mistake the date of the general election for the final deadline, but runoffs occurring after November can still change the seat count.
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 3d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Peter Oberacker
- Richard Hudson
- National Republican Congressional Committee