Hamilton hopes F1 ends season in Middle East despite war fears
Lewis Hamilton supports Formula One's plan to conclude the calendar in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, though a contingency exists for Imola if conflicts force cancellation.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 11:13 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 07:12 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 06:08 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 44% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 42% |
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| 2 Nov, 15:34 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 37% |
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| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 42% |
| 31 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 43% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 37% |
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| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 47% |
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| 25 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 48% |
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| 25 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 49% |
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| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 47% |
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| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 50% |
| 22 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 50% |
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| 22 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 53% |
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| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 59% |
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| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 45% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 45% |
| 20 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 48% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 44% |
| 20 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 35% |
| 20 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 40% |
| 18 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 36% |
| 18 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 45% |
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| 17 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 36% |
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| 17 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 38% |
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| 15 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 18% |
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| 14 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 19% |
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| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 22% |
| 13 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 32% |
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| 13 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 43% |
| 12 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 50% |
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| 12 Oct, 18:02 UTC | 54% |
| 12 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 52% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 52% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 53% |
| 12 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 56% |
| 12 Oct, 03:37 UTC | 52% |
| 12 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 53% |
| 11 Oct, 23:37 UTC | 57% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 56% |
| 11 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 53% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 55% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 58% |
| 11 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 56% |
| 11 Oct, 00:26 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 59% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 58% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 65% |
| 10 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 62% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 64% |
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| 8 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 48% |
| 5 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Oct, 03:32 UTC | 51% |
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| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 51% |
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| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 48% |
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| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 44% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 07:01 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 17:14 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 16:33 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 52% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 23 Sept 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 23 September at 16:40 UTC; SkySports followed 19h 57m later. The most recent article, from SkySports, appeared on 24 September at 12:38 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Yes — the market puts it at 37%, with $463 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix main race takes place in Abu Dhabi after this question posts and before December 7, 2026 at 12:00am EST. The outcome is No if that specific race does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for a local time zone or assume any event in Abu Dhabi counts instead of only the main race.
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? — resolved “No” on 2 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Lewis Hamilton finishes first in the 2026 F1 Drivers' standings, with ties broken by standard F1 rules. The No outcome applies if any other driver wins or if Hamilton is mathematically eliminated from contention. Readers often mistake the final race date for the resolution deadline; the market actually resolves once official results are known, provided the season completes by March 31, 2027.
- Lewis Hamilton — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Lewis Hamilton wins the Formula 1 Drivers Championship. The outcome is No if he does not win the championship. Readers often mistake the final race date for the resolution deadline, but the market resolves based on the official championship standings.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Yes 37% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 5d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Lewis Hamilton No 4d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lewis Hamilton
- Formula One
- Qatar
- Abu Dhabi
- Imola