DoJ declines to reopen criminal probe of Fed chair Jerome Powell
The US Justice Department will not reopen a criminal investigation into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after an internal watchdog found no evidence of illegal conduct in the bank's renovation project.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by International homepage, 14 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Sept, 20:51 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before 2027 respond.
The story so far
10 publishers have covered this in 17 articles since 30 Sept 2026. International homepage published first, on 30 September at 17:00 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 15 min later. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 2 October at 22:32 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Washington Post Business (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Quartz, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 6%, with $502 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if President Trump fires Jerome Powell before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not fire him by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a probe as the resolution event, but only an actual firing counts.
- Reserve President Rejected — the market puts it at 16%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if the Board of Governors rejects the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president between May 5, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the linked news story about criminal violations as relevant; only the Board's approval or rejection of reappointment matters.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 1%, with $255 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Department of Justice reopens or starts a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell after May 4, 2023, at 2:00 PM ET and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story as the resolution trigger, but only an official DOJ action counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- International homepageFed watchdog finds ‘deficiencies’ in $2.5bn headquarters renovation project4%
- CBS News PoliticsFed watchdog finds no laws broken in $2.5 billion Fed renovation4%
- The HillFed watchdog finds no criminality in renovation probe4%
- The Guardian USFederal Reserve watchdog finds no criminal violations for building renovation cost overruns4%
- QuartzFed watchdog found no crimes in $2 billion headquarters renovation cost overruns4%
- Washington Post BusinessWatchdog finds Fed mishandled renovations that Trump tried to oust Powell over4%
- AxiosFed watchdog clears former chair Powell in renovation probe4%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS Fed watchdog finds no criminal wrongdoing in Powell-era renovation costs4%
- Bloomberg.comBalance of Power: Fed Watchdog Finds Renovations Legal (Podcast)4%
- The HillPowell cleared in handling of Fed renovations4%
Show 7 later sources
- Bloomberg MarketsUMich’s Stevenson on Fed Report, Inflation Reading4%
- The HillTrump says he asked Blanche to 'study' Fed watchdog report that cleared Powell14%▲10 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesTrump renews calls for former Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's resignation14%
- QuartzTrump is demanding Powell resign from the Fed board over a $2.4 billion renovation14%
- QuartzTrump eyes removal of 3 Fed governors, but courts could block him10%▼4 points since the previous source
- News FeedDoJ will not reopen criminal probe of Fed’s Jay Powell3%▼6 points since the previous source
- The Guardian USDoJ declines to reopen investigation into former Fed chair Jay Powell3%
- Current odds6%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- DoJ declines to reopen investigation into former Fed chair Jay Powell The Guardian US ·
- DoJ will not reopen criminal probe of Fed’s Jay Powell News Feed ·
- Trump says he asked Blanche to 'study' Fed watchdog report that cleared Powell The Hill ·
- UMich’s Stevenson on Fed Report, Inflation Reading Bloomberg Markets ·
- Powell cleared in handling of Fed renovations The Hill ·
- Balance of Power: Fed Watchdog Finds Renovations Legal (Podcast) Bloomberg.com ·
Show 11 more sources
- US Fed watchdog finds no criminal wrongdoing in Powell-era renovation costs Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Fed watchdog clears former chair Powell in renovation probe Axios ·
- Watchdog finds Fed mishandled renovations that Trump tried to oust Powell over Washington Post Business ·
- Federal Reserve watchdog finds no criminal violations for building renovation cost overruns The Guardian US ·
- Fed watchdog finds no criminality in renovation probe The Hill ·
- Fed watchdog finds no laws broken in $2.5 billion Fed renovation CBS News Politics ·
- Fed watchdog finds ‘deficiencies’ in $2.5bn headquarters renovation project International homepage ·
- Trump eyes removal of 3 Fed governors, but courts could block him Quartz
- Trump is demanding Powell resign from the Fed board over a $2.4 billion renovation Quartz
- Trump renews calls for former Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's resignation France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Fed watchdog found no crimes in $2 billion headquarters renovation cost overruns Quartz
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2027 6% +4
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- Kalshi Reserve President Rejected 16%
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- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 1% −7
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In this story
- Jerome Powell
- Todd Blanche
- Federal Reserve
- US Justice Department