Experts Warn US Road Safety Could Worsen Under Transport Secretary Sean Duffy
Critics argue that the new transport secretary's policies targeting bike lanes and immigrant drivers may increase road fatalities.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 20:04 UTC | 15% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 11% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 10% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 14% |
| 16 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 13% |
| 16 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 12% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 13 October at 14:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Sean Duffy — the market puts it at 10%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Sean Duffy leaves his role as Secretary of Transportation before 2027. The outcome is No if he remains in office through that date. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the actual departure date, but the resolution depends on when he officially ceases to hold the position.
- Sean Duffy — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Sean Duffy becomes the first Cabinet member to leave or announce his departure from Donald Trump's administration after May 22, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in office or if another Cabinet member leaves before him during that period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the start of his tenure rather than the specific date of May 22, 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Sean Duffy 10% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Sean Duffy No 13h ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Sean Duffy
- Donald Trump
- US Department of Transportation