Trump Announces Rollback of Biden-Era Methane Regulations for Oil and Gas
The administration plans to terminate rules targeting methane leaks from oil and gas wells, a move critics warn increases climate danger.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 10% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 13% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch EPA respond.
The story so far
12 publishers have covered this in 14 articles since 27 Oct 2026. Nature published first, on 27 October at 00:00 UTC; The New York Times followed 17h 08m later. The most recent article, from Fortune, appeared on 30 October at 16:23 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Nature (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Energy & Environment (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, businessinsider.com, Eos, Scientific American, National Review, Fortune.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- EPA — the market puts it at 13%, with $14 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the Environmental Protection Agency is eliminated before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if the agency remains in existence on or after that date. Readers often mistake the lawsuit headline for an elimination event, but only the actual dissolution of the EPA counts toward resolution.
- During his presidential term — the market puts it at 26%, closing 31 Dec 2031. The market resolves to Yes if income inequality in the United States is higher in 2024 than it is in 2028. It resolves to No if inequality is lower or equal in 2024 compared to 2028. Readers often mistake the linked news story about fuel economy standards as the deciding factor, but the resolution depends solely on economic inequality data.
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? — the market puts it at 1%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome triggers if Donald Trump permanently leaves his current office before January 1, 2027. Temporary suspensions, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on EPA at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- NatureMethane emissions remain flat even as biggest US oil region opens the tap12%
- The New York TimesE.P.A. to Loosen Methane Rules for Oil Firms12%
- The VergeTrump is making it easier for fossil fuel companies to leak methane12%
- The HillTrump easing methane rules for oil and gas12%
- The HillTrump announces proposal to loosen methane rules for oil and gas production12%
- Energy & EnvironmentTrump touts methane rollback at Paxton campaign stop12%
- The GuardianTrump says government to ’terminate’ Biden-era methane emissions rules12%
- Energy & EnvironmentNew satellites see thousands of methane leaks. Governments shrug.12%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesU.S. moves to weaken methane limits on oil and gas producers12%
- businessinsider.comTrump terminates Biden-era methane rules putting Africa’s $101.75 billion oil and gas market in focus12%
Show 4 later sources
- EosTrump to Ease Methane Rules for Oil and Gas Wells12%
- Scientific AmericanFive things you need to know about the Trump administration’s rollback of methane regulations12%
- National ReviewTrump’s Rollback of Methane Regulations Is Welcome12%
- FortuneTrump slammed Biden-Harris for the ‘war on energy’ during his 2024 campaign. Now he’s rolling back Biden-era regulations as gas sits above $4 a gallon12%
- Current odds13%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- New satellites see thousands of methane leaks. Governments shrug. Energy & Environment ·
- Trump says government to ’terminate’ Biden-era methane emissions rules The Guardian ·
- Trump touts methane rollback at Paxton campaign stop Energy & Environment ·
- Trump announces proposal to loosen methane rules for oil and gas production The Hill ·
- Trump easing methane rules for oil and gas The Hill ·
- Trump is making it easier for fossil fuel companies to leak methane The Verge ·
Show 8 more sources
- E.P.A. to Loosen Methane Rules for Oil Firms The New York Times ·
- Methane emissions remain flat even as biggest US oil region opens the tap Nature ·
- Trump slammed Biden-Harris for the ‘war on energy’ during his 2024 campaign. Now he’s rolling back Biden-era regulations as gas sits above $4 a gallon Fortune
- Trump’s Rollback of Methane Regulations Is Welcome National Review
- Five things you need to know about the Trump administration’s rollback of methane regulations Scientific American
- Trump to Ease Methane Rules for Oil and Gas Wells Eos
- Trump terminates Biden-era methane rules putting Africa’s $101.75 billion oil and gas market in focus businessinsider.com
- U.S. moves to weaken methane limits on oil and gas producers Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi EPA 13% +1
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- Kalshi During his presidential term 26%
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- Polymarket Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? 1%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Biden
- Paxton
- EPA
- Africa