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Maine Senate Race Intensifies Over Campaign Finance and Policy Disputes

Democratic challenger Troy Jackson faces incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in a pivotal Maine contest dominated by campaign finance attacks and policy disagreements.

3 publishers · 5 articles · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 37d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Susan Collins
0%50%100%0%22 Sept, 07:00 UTCnowThe Hill: Jackson holds edge over Collins in Maine Senate race: Poll · 1 Oct, 16:38 UTCNPR Politics: Along U.S. Route 1, Maine voters worry about heating oil, gas and Canadian tariffs · 1 Oct, 09:00 UTCWashington Post: Troy Jackson apologizes for comments on Jewish Mainers’ views of Gaza war · 30 Sept, 15:51 UTCWashington Post: Maine Democrat who rejects special interests previously ran PAC that courted them · 30 Sept, 10:00 UTCJust In News: Senate Democratic PAC hits Collins over Medicaid cuts she voted against · 28 Sept, 21:16 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
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The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Just In News published first, on 28 September at 21:16 UTC; Washington Post followed 36h 44m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 1 October at 16:38 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Washington Post (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Susan Collins — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican takes office as a U.S. Senator from Maine for the term starting in 2027. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
  • Susan Collins — the market puts it at 45%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Senator Susan Collins votes in favor of Kari Lake’s nomination as U.S. Ambassador to Jamaica before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a bribery probe for the actual voting event that triggers the resolution.
  • Republican party — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Republican party wins control of the Maine State Senate in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they do not win control. Readers often mistake this for a single-seat race or confuse the winner with the incumbent mentioned in the linked story.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Susan Collins at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Just In NewsSenate Democratic PAC hits Collins over Medicaid cuts she voted against41%
  2. Washington PostMaine Democrat who rejects special interests previously ran PAC that courted them41%
  3. Washington PostTroy Jackson apologizes for comments on Jewish Mainers’ views of Gaza war41%
  4. NPR PoliticsAlong U.S. Route 1, Maine voters worry about heating oil, gas and Canadian tariffs42%▲1 points since the previous source
  5. The HillJackson holds edge over Collins in Maine Senate race: Poll42%
  6. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Jackson holds edge over Collins in Maine Senate race: Poll The Hill ·
  2. Along U.S. Route 1, Maine voters worry about heating oil, gas and Canadian tariffs NPR Politics ·
  3. Troy Jackson apologizes for comments on Jewish Mainers’ views of Gaza war Washington Post ·
  4. Maine Democrat who rejects special interests previously ran PAC that courted them Washington Post ·
  5. Senate Democratic PAC hits Collins over Medicaid cuts she voted against Just In News ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Susan Collins No 3d ago

    The market favoured No at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Susan Collins 45% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Republican party No 10h ago

    The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

In this story

  • Susan Collins
  • Troy Jackson
  • Maine
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.