China May Allow Alibaba, ByteDance to Buy Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 Chips
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has signaled it may approve purchases of the new RTX Pro 5500 chips by Alibaba and ByteDance.
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| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 08:05 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 18:16 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 20:18 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 11:48 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 02:57 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 23:13 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 12:31 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 09:18 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 08:57 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 02:51 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 00:40 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 00:18 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 22:10 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 13:58 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 07:40 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 09:19 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 36% |
| 28 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 14:17 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 02:30 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Sept, 21:49 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 49% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 49% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 09:40 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 02:17 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 19:38 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Sept, 10:35 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 63% |
| 23 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 64% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 66% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 66% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 27 Sept 2026. theinformation.com published first, on 27 September at 15:00 UTC; Bloomberg Technology followed 44 min later. The most recent article, from Ars Technica, appeared on 28 September at 21:49 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), Ars Technica (major outlet), theinformation.com, Quartz.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? — resolved “No” on 31 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Alibaba owns the Chinese AI model with the highest Text Arena rank at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other primarily Chinese company holds that top spot at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which is strictly the arena.ai leaderboard, rather than news reports or other ranking systems.
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves by checking the Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on arena.ai at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome is Yes if Alibaba owns the highest-ranked model among primarily Chinese companies listed in that specific ranking; otherwise, it is No.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- theinformation.comChina Weighs Allowing Purchases of New Nvidia Chips by ByteDance, Alibaba36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyChina May Let Alibaba Buy New Nvidia Chips, The Information Says36%
- QuartzChina might let ByteDance and Alibaba buy Nvidia's new workstation AI chips44%▲8 points since the previous source
- QuartzChina könnte ByteDance und Alibaba erlauben, neue KI-Workstation-Chips von Nvidia zu kaufen.44%
- Ars TechnicaExperts worry about Nvidia's AI chip sales in China and influence over Trump45%▲1 points since the previous source
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Experts worry about Nvidia's AI chip sales in China and influence over Trump Ars Technica ·
- China May Let Alibaba Buy New Nvidia Chips, The Information Says Bloomberg Technology ·
- China might let ByteDance and Alibaba buy Nvidia's new workstation AI chips Quartz
- China könnte ByteDance und Alibaba erlauben, neue KI-Workstation-Chips von Nvidia zu kaufen. Quartz
- China Weighs Allowing Purchases of New Nvidia Chips by ByteDance, Alibaba theinformation.com
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No 7d ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? No 37d ago
Wrong market?