Brazil’s Left Loses Voters in Small Towns to Right-Wing Shift
Small towns with large agricultural sectors and evangelical movements are swinging right, causing the left to lose ground.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 01:19 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 11:48 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 6% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 23 October at 09:04 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? — resolved “Yes” on 26 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Lula receives more valid votes than any other candidate in the second round of the Brazilian presidential election held in Minas Gerais on October 25, 2026. If no candidate wins definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? Yes 12d ago
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Brazil
- Nanuque