Brazil Candidates Court Women With Promises to Combat Violence
Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro vows to impose chemical castration on rapists and child abusers as candidates target female voters.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 03:39 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 0% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Sept 2026. ABC News published first, on 30 September at 11:27 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? — resolved “No” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Michelle Bolsonaro advances to the runoff or wins the first round of Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election. It resolves to "No" if she fails to reach the runoff or if the final result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — resolved “No” on 5 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Eduardo Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election as confirmed by credible reporting or official results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The No outcome applies if he does not win, provided the result is known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Flavio Bolsonaro — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The outcome "Yes" occurs if Flavio Bolsonaro is officially announced as qualified for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome "No" applies if he is not announced to qualify for that specific runoff. Readers often mistake general poll standings or candidacy announcements for the official qualification required for resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 33d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 33d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Flavio Bolsonaro Yes 33d ago
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- Brazil