NewsMarkets

Sports

Ballon d'Or 2026 Race Heats Up as Kane, Yamal and Mbappe Lead Contenders

Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Ousmane Dembele are among the leading candidates for the award to be presented in London on October 26.

3 publishers · 6 articles · first seen 21 Sept 2026 · updated 44d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%50%100%0%15 Sept, 06:14 UTCnowBBC Sport: How PSG's Ballon d'Or duo are pushing each other on · 24 Sept, 19:02 UTCSkySports: Ballon d'Or: Kane, Yamal, Mbappe and the main runners and riders assessed · 24 Sept, 14:59 UTCSI Feed: Five Reasons Why Lionel Messi Should Win the Ballon d’Or · 24 Sept, 11:50 UTCSI Feed: Five Reasons Why Lamine Yamal Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or · 23 Sept, 20:00 UTCSI Feed: Five Reasons Why Kylian Mbappe Should Win the Ballon d’Or · 22 Sept, 16:00 UTCSI Feed: Five Reasons Why Ousmane Dembele Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or · 21 Sept, 16:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
27 Oct, 01:53 UTC0%
26 Oct, 22:08 UTC0%
26 Oct, 20:40 UTC0%
26 Oct, 20:05 UTC0%
26 Oct, 17:45 UTC0%
26 Oct, 16:51 UTC0%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC0%
26 Oct, 15:39 UTC0%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC0%
26 Oct, 14:30 UTC0%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC0%
26 Oct, 11:31 UTC0%
26 Oct, 11:03 UTC0%
26 Oct, 10:49 UTC0%
26 Oct, 09:39 UTC0%
26 Oct, 08:44 UTC0%
26 Oct, 07:24 UTC0%
26 Oct, 06:51 UTC0%
26 Oct, 02:41 UTC0%
26 Oct, 02:06 UTC0%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC0%
26 Oct, 01:19 UTC0%
25 Oct, 17:35 UTC0%
25 Oct, 17:10 UTC0%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC0%
25 Oct, 16:28 UTC0%
25 Oct, 13:49 UTC0%
25 Oct, 13:25 UTC0%
25 Oct, 09:28 UTC0%
25 Oct, 03:30 UTC0%
25 Oct, 02:56 UTC0%
24 Oct, 21:58 UTC0%
24 Oct, 21:19 UTC0%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC0%
24 Oct, 14:12 UTC0%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC0%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC0%
24 Oct, 01:06 UTC0%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC0%
23 Oct, 21:11 UTC0%
23 Oct, 18:56 UTC0%
23 Oct, 16:43 UTC0%
23 Oct, 16:07 UTC0%
23 Oct, 15:20 UTC0%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC0%
21 Oct, 21:41 UTC0%
21 Oct, 21:04 UTC0%
21 Oct, 15:53 UTC0%
20 Oct, 12:25 UTC0%
20 Oct, 11:55 UTC0%
20 Oct, 10:35 UTC0%
20 Oct, 10:13 UTC0%
20 Oct, 08:23 UTC0%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC0%
17 Oct, 08:39 UTC0%
17 Oct, 08:20 UTC0%
17 Oct, 05:22 UTC0%
17 Oct, 03:56 UTC0%
15 Oct, 13:59 UTC0%
15 Oct, 02:29 UTC0%
15 Oct, 00:58 UTC0%
13 Oct, 18:22 UTC0%
13 Oct, 15:10 UTC0%
13 Oct, 14:05 UTC0%
13 Oct, 13:41 UTC0%
13 Oct, 13:18 UTC0%
13 Oct, 12:44 UTC0%
13 Oct, 12:01 UTC0%
13 Oct, 07:35 UTC0%
13 Oct, 05:48 UTC0%
13 Oct, 04:54 UTC0%
12 Oct, 23:08 UTC0%
12 Oct, 22:54 UTC0%
12 Oct, 09:53 UTC0%
12 Oct, 07:16 UTC0%
11 Oct, 23:56 UTC0%
10 Oct, 18:52 UTC0%
10 Oct, 16:02 UTC0%
10 Oct, 10:44 UTC0%
9 Oct, 18:20 UTC0%
6 Oct, 12:34 UTC0%
6 Oct, 10:25 UTC0%
6 Oct, 08:42 UTC0%
6 Oct, 03:55 UTC0%
5 Oct, 22:15 UTC0%
5 Oct, 20:58 UTC0%
5 Oct, 15:14 UTC0%
5 Oct, 09:01 UTC1%
5 Oct, 06:36 UTC1%
5 Oct, 01:29 UTC1%
4 Oct, 19:46 UTC1%
4 Oct, 18:00 UTC1%
4 Oct, 17:47 UTC1%
4 Oct, 15:25 UTC1%
4 Oct, 07:12 UTC1%
4 Oct, 01:07 UTC1%
4 Oct, 00:47 UTC1%
3 Oct, 13:03 UTC1%
3 Oct, 12:08 UTC1%
3 Oct, 09:41 UTC1%
3 Oct, 08:48 UTC1%
3 Oct, 01:35 UTC1%
2 Oct, 22:50 UTC0%
2 Oct, 19:50 UTC1%
2 Oct, 16:23 UTC0%
2 Oct, 14:35 UTC0%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC0%
2 Oct, 09:04 UTC0%
1 Oct, 21:03 UTC0%
1 Oct, 20:56 UTC0%
1 Oct, 20:29 UTC1%
1 Oct, 19:55 UTC0%
1 Oct, 16:44 UTC0%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC0%
1 Oct, 13:21 UTC1%
1 Oct, 09:23 UTC0%
1 Oct, 04:52 UTC1%
1 Oct, 04:11 UTC1%
1 Oct, 00:44 UTC1%
1 Oct, 00:23 UTC1%
30 Sept, 23:32 UTC1%
30 Sept, 22:37 UTC1%
30 Sept, 16:26 UTC1%
30 Sept, 15:00 UTC1%
30 Sept, 07:44 UTC1%
30 Sept, 01:01 UTC1%
29 Sept, 20:26 UTC1%
29 Sept, 19:54 UTC1%
29 Sept, 18:39 UTC0%
29 Sept, 15:59 UTC1%
29 Sept, 10:45 UTC1%
29 Sept, 06:54 UTC1%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC1%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC1%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC1%
28 Sept, 13:30 UTC1%
28 Sept, 13:12 UTC1%
28 Sept, 12:57 UTC1%
28 Sept, 07:26 UTC1%
28 Sept, 06:59 UTC1%
28 Sept, 05:11 UTC1%
28 Sept, 01:28 UTC1%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC1%
26 Sept, 18:59 UTC1%
26 Sept, 09:40 UTC1%
26 Sept, 06:25 UTC1%
25 Sept, 22:09 UTC1%
25 Sept, 21:00 UTC1%
25 Sept, 19:53 UTC1%
25 Sept, 19:03 UTC1%
25 Sept, 18:36 UTC1%
25 Sept, 15:35 UTC1%
25 Sept, 15:01 UTC1%
25 Sept, 14:54 UTC1%
25 Sept, 14:25 UTC1%
25 Sept, 10:29 UTC1%
25 Sept, 06:23 UTC1%
25 Sept, 03:17 UTC1%
25 Sept, 02:06 UTC1%
24 Sept, 22:24 UTC1%
24 Sept, 18:56 UTC1%
24 Sept, 17:48 UTC1%
24 Sept, 15:59 UTC1%
16 Sept, 19:20 UTC1%
16 Sept, 17:41 UTC1%
16 Sept, 14:30 UTC1%
16 Sept, 11:33 UTC1%
15 Sept, 22:39 UTC1%
15 Sept, 19:43 UTC1%
15 Sept, 10:56 UTC1%
15 Sept, 06:14 UTC1%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 21 Sept 2026. SI Feed published first, on 21 September at 16:00 UTC; SkySports followed 70h 59m later. The most recent article, from BBC Sport, appeared on 24 September at 19:02 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: SI Feed, SkySports, BBC Sport.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — resolved “No” on 27 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Ousmane Dembélé is named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The No outcome applies if any other player wins the award. Readers often mistake the deadline for the announcement date rather than the final resolution cutoff on December 31, 2026.
  • Lionel Messi — resolved “Yes” on 26 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Lionel Messi finishes in the top five of the official 2026 Ballon d'Or rankings. It resolves to No if he does not reach that position. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the deadline, but the outcome depends solely on the final published ranking.
  • Harry Kane — resolved “Yes” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific prize. Readers often mistake the general race for the actual award announcement, which is the only event that matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. SI FeedFive Reasons Why Ousmane Dembele Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or1%
  2. SI FeedFive Reasons Why Kylian Mbappe Should Win the Ballon d’Or1%
  3. SI FeedFive Reasons Why Lamine Yamal Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or1%
  4. SI FeedFive Reasons Why Lionel Messi Should Win the Ballon d’Or1%
  5. SkySportsBallon d'Or: Kane, Yamal, Mbappe and the main runners and riders assessed1%
  6. BBC SportHow PSG's Ballon d'Or duo are pushing each other on1%
  7. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. How PSG's Ballon d'Or duo are pushing each other on BBC Sport
  2. Ballon d'Or: Kane, Yamal, Mbappe and the main runners and riders assessed SkySports
  3. Five Reasons Why Lionel Messi Should Win the Ballon d’Or SI Feed
  4. Five Reasons Why Lamine Yamal Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or SI Feed
  5. Five Reasons Why Kylian Mbappe Should Win the Ballon d’Or SI Feed
  6. Five Reasons Why Ousmane Dembele Should Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or SI Feed

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 11d ago
    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Lionel Messi Yes 11d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Harry Kane Yes 11d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.