Fleetwood Town eliminate Arsenal from Carabao Cup on penalties
Fourth-tier Fleetwood Town defeated Premier League champions Arsenal on penalties in the Carabao Cup after a 1-1 draw.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 23% |
| 26 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 34% |
| 18 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 07:34 UTC | 32% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 27% |
| 8 Oct, 04:31 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 16:07 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 23% |
| 26 Sept, 19:43 UTC | 24% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Arsenal respond.
The story so far
7 publishers have covered this in 25 articles since 26 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 26 October at 18:00 UTC; The Guardian Sport followed 24h 31m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Sport, appeared on 29 October at 22:15 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), www.espn.com (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SI Feed, SkySports, BBC Sport, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Arsenal — the market puts it at 17%, closing 5 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal wins the 2026-2027 FA Cup. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake the linked story about Chelsea ending Arsenal's unbeaten run as the resolution criteria, but only the final winner of the 2026-2027 FA Cup matters.
- Arsenal — the market puts it at 67%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal wins the 2026-27 English Premier League title. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific championship. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mikel Arteta’s contract for a resolution condition, but only the league title matters.
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? — the market puts it at 65%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 May 2027. Yes resolves if Arsenal finishes first in the 2026-27 EPL standings; No resolves if any other team wins or if Arsenal is mathematically eliminated from contention. The market also resolves to Other if the season ends without a winner by June 14, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of who will win the title rather than a binary outcome based on the final standings.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Arsenal at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SI FeedArsenal Predicted Lineup vs. Fleetwood: Mikel Arteta Turns to Dazzling Starlet18%
- SI FeedFleetwood vs. Arsenal: Preview, Predictions and Lineups19%▲1 points since the previous source
- The Guardian SportFleetwood Town v Arsenal: Carabao Cup fourth round – live20%▲1 points since the previous source
- SkySports'Fleetwood's fantasy moment!' - Arsenal losing to L2 side in Carabao Cup clash17%▼3 points since the previous source
- SkySportsArsenal dumped out of Carabao Cup by League Two Fleetwood17%
- SkySportsArsenal OUT on pens to League Two Fleetwood!17%
- The Guardian SportFantastic Fleetwood seal shootout success in Carabao Cup shock against Arsenal17%
- www.espn.comArsenal stunned in Carabao Cup loss to 4th-tier Fleetwood Town17%
- The Guardian Sport‘What you live for’: Fleetwood revel in seismic Arsenal shock after Dowman sees red17%
- BBC SportDowman sees red as Arsenal dumped out, but did Arteta go too far?20%▲3 points since the previous source
Show 15 later sources
- BBC Sport'Biggest night in the club's history' for fearless Fleetwood20%
- Latest articlesArsenal manger laments ‘very sad day’ after Fleetwood stuns Premier League giant in League Cup20%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraArsenal knocked out of League Cup by fourth-tier Fleetwood Town20%
- BBC SportLawlor delighted after beating 'best team in the country'20%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWhere does Arsenal’s Fleetwood humiliation place in English cup shocks?20%
- SI FeedArsenal’s Carabao Cup Humiliation Ramps Pressure Up on Liverpool, Chelsea20%
- SI Feed2026–27 Carabao Cup Quarterfinal Draw: Date, Time, Ball Numbers17%▼3 points since the previous source
- The Guardian SportFootball Daily | Fleetwood go their own way to down Arsenal and live Carabao Cup dream17%
- The Guardian‘This isn’t supposed to happen’: giant-slaying Fleetwood revels in fairytale win17%
- BBC SportPenalty against Arsenal 'like a dream' for Haughey17%
- BBC SportFleetwood to face Everton or Newcastle in last eight17%
- The Guardian SportArsenal fail at Fleetwood and Michael Carrick clings on | Football Weekly Extra – video17%
- SI Feed‘Not Well’—Fleetwood Star Digs at Arsenal’s Attitude After Carabao Cup Shock17%
- The Guardian SportEverton v Newcastle: Carabao Cup fourth round – live17%
- The Guardian SportEverton ease past Newcastle to set up Fleetwood trip after Grealish is dropped17%
- Current odds17%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Everton ease past Newcastle to set up Fleetwood trip after Grealish is dropped The Guardian Sport ·
- Everton v Newcastle: Carabao Cup fourth round – live The Guardian Sport ·
- Arsenal fail at Fleetwood and Michael Carrick clings on | Football Weekly Extra – video The Guardian Sport ·
- ‘This isn’t supposed to happen’: giant-slaying Fleetwood revels in fairytale win The Guardian ·
- Football Daily | Fleetwood go their own way to down Arsenal and live Carabao Cup dream The Guardian Sport ·
- Where does Arsenal’s Fleetwood humiliation place in English cup shocks? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Show 19 more sources
- Arsenal knocked out of League Cup by fourth-tier Fleetwood Town Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- ‘What you live for’: Fleetwood revel in seismic Arsenal shock after Dowman sees red The Guardian Sport ·
- Arsenal stunned in Carabao Cup loss to 4th-tier Fleetwood Town www.espn.com ·
- Fantastic Fleetwood seal shootout success in Carabao Cup shock against Arsenal The Guardian Sport ·
- Fleetwood Town v Arsenal: Carabao Cup fourth round – live The Guardian Sport ·
- ‘Not Well’—Fleetwood Star Digs at Arsenal’s Attitude After Carabao Cup Shock SI Feed
- Fleetwood to face Everton or Newcastle in last eight BBC Sport
- Penalty against Arsenal 'like a dream' for Haughey BBC Sport
- 2026–27 Carabao Cup Quarterfinal Draw: Date, Time, Ball Numbers SI Feed
- Arsenal’s Carabao Cup Humiliation Ramps Pressure Up on Liverpool, Chelsea SI Feed
- Lawlor delighted after beating 'best team in the country' BBC Sport
- Arsenal manger laments ‘very sad day’ after Fleetwood stuns Premier League giant in League Cup Latest articles
- 'Biggest night in the club's history' for fearless Fleetwood BBC Sport
- Dowman sees red as Arsenal dumped out, but did Arteta go too far? BBC Sport
- Arsenal OUT on pens to League Two Fleetwood! SkySports
- Arsenal dumped out of Carabao Cup by League Two Fleetwood SkySports
- 'Fleetwood's fantasy moment!' - Arsenal losing to L2 side in Carabao Cup clash SkySports
- Fleetwood vs. Arsenal: Preview, Predictions and Lineups SI Feed
- Arsenal Predicted Lineup vs. Fleetwood: Mikel Arteta Turns to Dazzling Starlet SI Feed
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Arsenal 17%
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Arsenal 67%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? 65% −2
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Wrong market?
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In this story
- Fleetwood Town
- Arsenal
- Carabao Cup
- Conor Haughey
- Jay Lynch