Amazon Finds PHP2Shell Exploits Before Public Disclosure
Amazon detected attempts to exploit the PHP2Shell vulnerability four days before patches were released, while Cloudflare reports millions of related attacks.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
All 2 sources published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 11:16 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 49% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 63% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 64% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 81% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 91% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 22 Oct 2026. Hacker News published first, on 22 October at 11:50 UTC; www.theregister.com followed 24 min later. The most recent article, from www.theregister.com, appeared on 22 October at 12:15 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Hacker News, www.theregister.com.
One prediction market prices this story:
- US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 27 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if CISA adds either CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The decision relies on the "Date Added" field in that specific catalog entry. Readers often mistake general news reports or other agency announcements for the official source of truth.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026? Yes 11d ago
The market favoured Yes at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- PHP2Shell
- AWS
- Cloudflare
- Amazon