Alcaraz Debuts Mustache, Sweeps Shanghai Opener
Carlos Alcaraz defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo in straight sets at the Shanghai Masters while sporting a new mustache.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 12 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 44% |
| 12 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 44% |
| 11 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 44% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 44% |
| 11 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 42% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 43% |
| 10 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 39% |
| 10 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 45% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 44% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 43% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 39% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 10 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 10 October at 14:34 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Carlos Alcaraz — resolved “No” on 12 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 ATP Shanghai professional tennis tournament. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific event. Readers often mistake this for any tournament victory, but only the 2026 ATP Shanghai title counts.
- Shanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz — resolved “Carlos Alcaraz” on 10 Oct 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz — the market puts it at 37%, with $161 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 15 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2027 Australian Open Men's Singles title. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake the linked Japan Open victory for the required event, but only the 2027 Australian Open result counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Carlos Alcaraz No 26d ago
The market favoured No at 57% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Shanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Carlos Alcaraz 28d ago
The market favoured Carlos Alcaraz at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Carlos Alcaraz 37% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- Shanghai Masters