Alabama Governor Race Heats Up as Term Limits Bar Incumbent Kay Ivey
Term limits prevent incumbent Kay Ivey from seeking re-election, opening the Alabama governor's race to new candidates.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 10:52 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 09:54 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 08:46 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 12:19 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 08:38 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 3 November at 17:00 UTC; CBS Sports Headlines followed 24h 17m later. The most recent article, from CBS Sports Headlines, appeared on 4 November at 17:16 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), CBS Sports Headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if no candidate is declared the winner. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which happens only when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, rather than on election night.
- Doug Jones — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat is inaugurated as Alabama's governor following the 2026 election. It resolves to No in all other cases. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current term limits for the actual resolution criteria.
- Above 1.49M — the market puts it at 80%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the total votes cast in the Alabama Governor General Election exceed 1,490,000. It resolves to No if the total vote count is 1,490,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming individual candidate totals matter instead of the aggregate vote count for all participants.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillAlabama live results: 2026 governor's election7%
- The HillTommy Tuberville wins Alabama governor's race4%▼3 points since the previous source
- CBS Sports HeadlinesFormer Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville elected Alabama governor after stint in U.S. Senate4%
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Doug Jones No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 1.49M 80%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Kay Ivey
- Alabama
- Tommy Tuberville