Week of 28 Sept 2026

Biggest stories

1. Democrats sweep US midterms as voters reject Trump's economy 34 publishers · 1 Oct
2. Lula Wins Brazil Election as Flávio Bolsonaro Flees to US 34 publishers · 2 Oct
3. Russia Ends Plague Quarantine After Tests Find No Pathogens 32 publishers · 4 Oct
4. Cornell suspends frat parties and adds investigators amid sexual assault probe 31 publishers · 28 Sept
5. Hundreds of Thousands Protest in France Over Cost of Living and Wages 29 publishers · 28 Sept
6. Skydance Shares Plunge as Warner Bros. Merger Faces Investor Skepticism 28 publishers · 29 Sept
7. China Vows to Hit Back as US Urges Fulfilment of Busan Trade Deal 24 publishers · 30 Sept
8. Trump, Vance Make Final Campaign Push as Midterm Elections Begin 23 publishers · 29 Sept

Biggest swings

Markets on our stories whose odds covered the widest range during the week.

• Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round? Between 2% and 97%
• Above 116 Between 3% and 97% · On: Amazon Expands FTC Prime Settlement Payments to Millions More Customers
• Yes Between 3% and 96% · On: US Relies on China for Rare Earth Processing After Decades of Cheaper Imports
• Claude Between 3% and 96%
• Before Oct 1, 2026 Between 3% and 95% · On: Google Launches Gemini 3.8 With Live Avatars and Text-to-Speech Models
• Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? Between 2% and 94%
• Above 35 Between 3% and 94%
• Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 29? Between 4% and 95%

Close calls the market got right

No contested calls resolved.

Favourites that lost

Every favourite won.