Above 116
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 97%
24-hour volume$26k
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolved7 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 18:23 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 exceeds 116. It resolves to No if that spend is 116 or lower. Readers often mistake the start date of Prime Day for the relevant deadline, but only the actual credit card spending data from September 2026 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%