Taylor Swift
The market favoured No at 67% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$39k
Total volume$45k
Liquidity$45k
Resolved27 Sept 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 12:01 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 11:40 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 10:37 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 05:50 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 23:17 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 17:14 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 06:40 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Sept, 00:56 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 15:01 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 12:31 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 03:30 UTC | 59% |
| 25 Sept, 02:40 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 08:51 UTC | 50% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift wins Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the linked news story about her trademark lawsuit for the resolution criteria, but only the award result matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%