Over 3.5 goals scored
The market favoured Yes at 51% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$263k
Total volume$276k
Liquidity$276k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 53% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 54% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 48% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 48% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if more than three goals are scored in the England vs Czechia match during regular play, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties. The total goal count must exceed 3.5 for a Yes outcome. Readers often mistake the linked England vs Croatia result as relevant, but only the England vs Czechia game counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%