England
The market favoured Yes at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1.3M
Total volume$1.4M
Liquidity$1.4M
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 87% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 87% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 87% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 18:16 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 85% |
| 2 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 83% |
| 2 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 84% |
| 2 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 83% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 82% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 84% |
| 1 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 82% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 83% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 81% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if England wins the UEFA Nations League match against Czechia within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. It resolves to No if the game ends in a draw or if Czechia wins during that same period. Readers often mistakenly believe that extra time or penalty shootouts determine the outcome, but these do not count toward the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%