Spain
The market favoured Yes at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$12.9M
Total volume$13.3M
Liquidity$13.3M
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 79% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 79% |
| 6 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 80% |
| 6 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 80% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 84% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Oct, 22:06 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 73% |
What counts
Spain must win the UEFA Nations League match against Croatia within the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. The outcome does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistake the final result after extra time as the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regulation time counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%