Paxton defeats Talarico
The market favoured No at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$114k
Total volume$646k
Liquidity$646k
Resolved3 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 20:41 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 18:37 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 12:36 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 09:47 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 20:51 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 18:34 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 12:34 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 20:36 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 03:31 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 33% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Republican nomination and then wins the general election before January 2027. The outcome is No if he fails to secure the nomination or loses the general election within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about his wife for a rule change, but only official election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%