South Africa / South African
Implied probability 25%+4
24-hour volume$256
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 27 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 33% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump mentions South Africa or a related term after October 1, 2026, and before November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not mention it during that specific window. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the relevant timeframe instead of the future resolution period.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%