Above 35
Implied probability 96%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 07:59 UTC | 96% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump holds more than 35 rallies between January 1 and November 3, 2026. It resolves to No if he holds 35 or fewer rallies during that period. Readers often mistake the end date for the election day in November 2024 instead of November 3, 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%