AI / Artificial Intelligence
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$102k
Liquidity$102k
Resolved23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 50% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 69% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 68% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 67% |
| 9 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 67% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 69% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 68% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 74% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions artificial intelligence during his Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York, which is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistakenly believe that any general discussion of AI or quantum computing by the administration counts toward the resolution, but only a specific mention by Trump at this rally matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%