Before Dec 1, 2026
Why it moved: +11 points at 05:10 UTC, after The New York Times: A Summit in China With Trump and Putin? That Might be Awkward for Xi. — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 7 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 09:30 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 05:10 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 79% |
| 6 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 91% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays in China between now and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not make such a trip within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about tariff cuts for the actual condition, but only his physical presence in China counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%