Paramount
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$1.9M
Liquidity$1.9M
Resolved1 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 93% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if there are qualifying public announcements indicating that Paramount successfully takes over Warner Bros. before July 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the announcement period rather than the cutoff for when the takeover must be confirmed.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%