Newcastle Knights
The market favoured No at 62% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolved30 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 21% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Newcastle Knights win the 2026 National Rugby League Championship. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific title. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of their performance in other seasons or tournaments.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%