John James and Mike Rogers win
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 20:34 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 07:12 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 06:44 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 05:12 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 20:00 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both the Michigan Governor and the Michigan Senate races are won by Republican candidates. It resolves to No if either candidate loses or if a non-Republican wins either seat. Readers often mistake the linked endorsement story as sufficient for resolution, but only the final election results determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%