Ramaswamy, 3+ pts
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 23:08 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 14% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 13% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican candidate wins by less than 3 percentage points or loses the election entirely. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any Republican victory counts rather than specifically a win of 3 points or more.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%