Rogers, 3+ pts
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +4 points at 21:34 UTC, after Axios: Haley Stevens requests U.S. marshals' protection after death threats — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 20:34 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 23:37 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 16:34 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 12:12 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 08:36 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Nov, 23:43 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 20:00 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 12% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election by a margin of at least three percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than three points or loses the race entirely. Readers often mistake the endorsement mentioned in the linked story for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%