Republican Party
Implied probability 3%+1
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$98k
Liquidity$98k
Resolves8 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 23:36 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 09:01 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 01:03 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 22:35 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 03:07 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 03:33 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Republicans lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives between now and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only the official election results after November 3, 2026, determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%