Brazil
The market favoured Yes at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1.2M
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$1.2M
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 12:03 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 57% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 90% |
| 29 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 76% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 21:37 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 17:38 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Sept, 13:44 UTC | 77% |
What counts
Brazil wins the match within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time, for the Yes outcome. The result excludes any extra time or penalty shootouts that might follow. Readers often mistakenly believe that a victory in extra time or on penalties counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%