Category 4 or above
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$226k
Liquidity$226k
Resolved2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 19% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 17% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 10% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Isaias reaches maximum sustained winds of 130 mph or higher. It resolves to No if it does not reach that wind speed threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%